Aug 25, 2020
Overwhelming excess deaths behind the official Covid-19 deaths in South American countries
Except one miracle country, South America is now literally the epicenter of Covid-19. However the actual situation may be way worse than officially reported.
Financial Times compiled the statistics of the excess deaths about 24 countries and regions (If you are interested in another article based on this data, it’s here.). They defined the excess deaths as the gap of the actual deaths from the median value of the data for the equivalent period in years from 2015 to 2019. If more people died this week compared to the equivalent week of the past years, the value becomes positive, vice versa. The excess deaths cover all-cause deaths, so the deaths from car accidents and the deaths from Covid-19 are all included.
The chart above represents the excess deaths (blue) and the Covid-19 deaths (red) in Peru. Except San Marino, Peru is ranked to be the 2nd worst country in deaths per capita after Belgium. However the excess deaths are more than 3.5 times larger than Covid-19 deaths in Peru. Besides, as it’s obvious on the chart, the gap between the excess deaths and Covid-19 is growing more significant.
The line chart above shows the excess deaths (blue) and the Covid-19 deaths (red) in Ecuador. Actually regarding Ecuador, the excess deaths are not the national number, it’s only the number from Guayas province. However the excess deaths only from Guayas province are 3 times larger than the national Covid-19 deaths. Ecuador is now ranked to be the 16th worst country in Covid-19 without San Marino, Andorra and Sint Maarten. We never know the actual number of the Covid-19 from the entire Ecuador.
The chart above is the comparison of the excess deaths (blue) and the Covid-19 deaths (red) in Chile. On the latest day when the data is available, the excess deaths are bigger than the Covid-19 deaths by at least 4.5K deaths. Besides, just like Peru, the gap between the excess deaths and the Covid-19 deaths is growing larger. It means more and more deaths are counted unrelated to Covid-19.
The chart above shows the excess deaths (blue) and the Covid-19 deaths (red) in Brazil. Brazil is the 2nd worst country hit by Covid-19 after the US and the death toll counts over 110,000. Just like other 3 nations I explained above, the excess deaths have been surpassing the Covid-19 deaths since February. Unlike other countries, the gap between the excess deaths and the Covid-19 deaths is shrinking, but Brazil hasn’t released the excess deaths data since late June.
We have seen the excess deaths and the Covid-19 deaths in 4 countries of South America. As the excess deaths mean all-cause deaths, it is not clear how many unreported Covid-19 deaths are included. However, the charts show the excess deaths rose and soared simultaneously with the Covid-19 deaths. The actual magnitude of the pandemic is possibly underreported in South America.
