Strong correlation between HIV prevalence and Covid-19 cases per capita and deaths per capita
Both HIV prevalence data and Covid-19 cases statistics are available on the internet, but these have never been discussed together, so I did this. I’m aware of the sensitivity of talking about HIV prevalence and I would love to emphasize that I have no intention of discrimination or prejudice related to HIV.
In June 2020, I found a strong correlation between HIV prevalence and Covid-19 cases per capita in the 12 worst countries in Covid-19 cases where HIV data was available. It means the higher HIV prevalence a country has, the more Covid-19 cases the country has. On August 21st, 2020, a strong correlation emerged even between HIV prevalence and Covid-19 deaths per capita among more countries, so I’m publishing the result here.
The chart below shows Covid-19 cases per million population on August 20th, 2020 and prevalence of HIV (% of population ages 15~49, 2016). Among 20 countries which have the most covid19 cases, 14 countries, where the prevalence data of HIV were available, were chosen and analyzed for correlation. Correlation coefficient is 0.78, which shows a strong correlation between HIV prevalence and Covid-19 cases per million in these chosen countries. The HIV prevalence of South Africa is 20.4%, which is an outlier, therefore this country was excluded from this analysis. When I performed the same analysis on June 10th, 2020, Colombia and Argentina were not in the list but the correlation coefficient was 0.79.
The chart below shows Covid-19 deaths per million population on August 20th, 2020 and prevalence of HIV (% of population ages 15~49, 2016) about the same countries. Correlation coefficient is 0.61, which shows a significant correlation between HIV prevalence and Covid-19 deaths per million in these chosen countries. It means the higher HIV prevalence a country has, the more Covid-19 deaths the country has. This correlation was not seen in June.
Unfortunately, this explains why Covid-19 deaths per capita is larger in Spain than Italy, or why Covid-19 cases per capita is smaller in Germany than in France.
Covid-19 statistics were compiled by Johns Hopkins University and HIV prevalence data was downloaded from the website of The World Bank.
I’m not going to add any interpretation to this analysis itself. I’ll only try to enhance this research for more accuracy.
For further research, a tailored analysis request or any inquiry, please don’t hesitate to write to me on the comment or through email attached on my profile.
